Avoiding The Gambler's Fallacy

Avoiding the Gambler’s Fallacy

• WHAT IS THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY?
• LOTTERIES – IGNORE “HOT” AND “COLD” NUMBERS
• SLOTS – YOUR MACHINE ISN’T “DUE”
• CRAPS – ROLL WITH THE ODDS
• BACCARAT – A GAME OF PURE CHANCE
• HOW TO AVOID THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY?
• BET SAFELY AND AVOID THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY

WHAT IS THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY?

One common trap that many punters have found themselves falling into is that of the gambler's fallacy. This is the misplaced belief that past random events will have an influence on future outcomes, and thus they bet accordingly. Unfortunately for many of these punters, past random events do not have any impact on future outcomes, therefore these bets are often irrational and lead to disappointment. At Lottoland's online casino, we don’t want you to fall into the same trap, so here are some examples of how the fallacy can manifest itself in some of the world’s most popular casino games.

LOTTERIES – IGNORE “HOT” AND “COLD” NUMBERS

It is important for you to know that the gambler’s fallacy isn’t limited to the casino floor, it also appears in international lotteries – and has done for centuries! Many people will carry out intense research before picking their lottery numbers, believing that “cold” numbers – those that haven’t been drawn for a long time – are more likely to be picked soon. Others will want to avoid “hot” numbers – those numbers that have been drawn recently and often.

In reality, “hot” and “cold” numbers are no more likely or less likely to be drawn than any other. Lottery draws are completely random events, with each number having an equal chance of being drawn, regardless of past results. The idea that some numbers can be “hot” or “cold” is the classic manifestation of the gambler’s fallacy.

SLOTS – YOUR MACHINE ISN’T “DUE”

Slots are another fertile breeding ground for the gambler’s fallacy. We have all heard the stories of the opportunists who circle the casino floor, watching other players pump their coins into the machine to no avail. When the players eventually give up, these opportunists strike, jumping onto the slot that hasn’t paid out for a while, with the expectation that a payout is imminent, just because it hasn’t happened yet. Similarly, some players of online slots may eye up the progressive jackpots, thinking that as they get bigger and bigger they are more likely to pay out.

For these opportunists the sad truth is that they too have fallen victim to the fallacy. They are driven by the belief that the slot is “due”, when in reality an intricate algorithm controls the slot’s random number generator (RNG), to ensure that the outcome of the next spin is completely independent of the previous one. Slot machines do not have a memory, and your odds of hitting the jackpot are the same, regardless of how long it has been since it last paid out.

CRAPS – ROLL WITH THE ODDS

In Craps, onlookers are often victims of the gambler’s fallacy. Imagine for a moment that you are caught up in the excitement of a craps game in your favourite live casino. The shooter is rolling high number after high number, and you start to believe that this can’t continue. Surely a low number is due next?

This is another example of the gambler’s fallacy. Again, every roll of the dice is independent from the last, so the odds of rolling any particular number remain the same. Whatever happened in previous rolls will not, and cannot, have any impact on the outcome of future ones.

BACCARAT – A GAME OF PURE CHANCE

Fans of Live Baccarat are not immune to the gambler’s fallacy either. In this game, often considered to be a game of pure chance, it is possible that you may witness the Banker win ten hands in a row. You may then be tempted to place a bet on the Player, rather than the Banker, in the belief that surely their luck will change and the tide will turn.

This is another misguided notion! Just like with live roulette and craps, each hand in baccarat is an independent event. The probability that the Banker or the Player will win will remain the same for each hand, unaffected by previous events.

HOW TO AVOID THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY?

Avoiding the gambler’s fallacy begins with understanding the nature of randomness in a casino. It is important that you understand and acknowledge that these games are designed to produce independent outcomes. Once you accept that, then it is logical that each event, whether it’s a roll of a dice or a spin of a roulette wheel, is a fresh event with its own set of probabilities – completely free from influence from previous results.

It is also a good idea to educate yourself about the odds in the games you decide to play. Understanding how RTP works will help understand the house edge in certain slots. Similarly, knowing which casino table games have the best odds will help you to set your expectations accordingly. Understanding that the odds remain constant and unaffected by previous outcomes can help you make informed, rational decisions – avoiding the trap that a certain outcome is “due”.

Setting yourself a strict limit, and sticking to it, is also key to avoiding the fallacy. If you have established a set budget for your play then you will remain in control, and avoid chasing losses in the erroneous belief that a future win is “due”. In a similar manner, it is crucial to maintain a logical mindset when gambling.

By approaching each game with the knowledge and understanding that it is unaffected by previous outcomes, you best protect yourself from falling victim to the fallacy. Indeed, if you find yourself believing that a specific outcome is imminent due to previous results, or you are exceeding your limits to chase losses, then perhaps the time has come to take a step back and make use of some of the safer gambling tools that are on offer.

BET SAFELY AND AVOID THE GAMBLER’S FALLACY

Essentially, avoiding the gambler’s fallacy means placing bets with logic, not emotion. The highs and lows of winning and losing can cloud judgement, leading to bets being placed that would otherwise be seen as illogical. Remembering that each game is a separate event, governed by chance will help you to make rational, logical choices and avoid the trap, and the pitfalls, of the gambler’s fallacy.